Week 14 Men's Basketball Preview: Arkansas State Red Wolves
The Arkansas State Red Wolves have plummeted to tenth in the Sun Belt standings after a three-game losing streak. They will look to get back on track with a conference clash against Coastal Carolina, followed by a MAC-SBC Challenge matchup against Bowling Green.
Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina
Wednesday evening’s game features two teams with opposite profiles. Arkansas State ranks second in the conference with an average offensive output of 81.5 PPG, while Coastal Carolina clocks in at 10th with an average of 73.2. However, the Red Wolves rank 12th in points allowed, while the Chanticleers rank fifth.
Defense has been a constant struggle for Arkansas State, who has held just one conference opponent to fewer than 70 points in a game this season (68 against Georgia Southern). The advanced metrics reinforce this—The Red Wolves rank 225th in defensive rating, according to KenPom. This is the fifth-worst defensive rating in the Sun Belt.
Despite sitting in 10th in the Sun Belt standings, KenPom has Arkansas State rated as the third-best team in the conference, trailing only Troy and Marshall. The team’s pace now ranks 20th in the nation, continuing a slight dip over the past several weeks. If the Red Wolves want to break out of their funk, an increase in pace might do the trick.
Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina comes in having won six of their last seven games. They will play hosts, and boast an impressive 6-3 record at home. KenPom has the Chanticleers ranked 232nd overall. This is mainly due to their offensive rating of 279th overall. The metric also has Coastal as the 12th-luckiest team in all of Division I basketball.
The Chanticleers offense is led by a steady scoring diet from Joshua Beadle, AJ Dancler and RaSheed Jones. Each player averages at least 15 points overall, and they all have seen scoring upticks since conference play began. The rest of the Coastal offense is barren. Reggie Hill is the only other player averaging more than five points a game in Sun Belt play. Relying on only a few scorers is a difficult way to live, but the Chanticleers have been able to do it so far this season.
It is a big ask, but if the Arkansas State defense can contain just one of Beadle, Dancler or Jones, Coastal might struggle on the offensive end.
The realistic key to a Red Wolves rebound is to get going offensively early. Arkansas State has seen success through a spread-the-wealth mentality. By getting all five starters involved in the early stages of the game, they might be able to break a stout Chanticleer defense and gain momentum.
Tipoff: Wednesday, Feb. 4, 7:00 p.m. EST/6:00 p.m. CST
TV: ESPN+
Radio: 107.9 KFIN (Arkansas State), WRXZ 107.1/ iHeart Radio (Coastal)
Bowling Green at Arkansas State
Bowling Green comes into Saturday’s matchup ranked seventh in the MAC. They boast a strong offense (84.3 points, 4th in MAC) and stingy defense (70.1 points, 1st in MAC). Javontae Campbell leads the team with 19 points-per-game. The Falcons rank 127th in KenPom and, like Arkansas State, are the third-highest ranked team in their conference despite being lower in the standings.
Before dismantling Ball State by a final score of 77-52, Bowling Green had lost their previous three games. In the first leg of the MAC-SBC Challenge, the Falcons faced off against Texas State. The game was far from close. Bowling Green took it by 35 points. The Red Wolves defeated Ohio in the first leg of the challenge behind scoring outbursts from Joey Chammaa and Chandler Jackson. They will need similar performances if they hope to avoid the same fate as Texas State.
Tipoff: Saturday, Feb. 7, 2:00 p.m. CST
TV: ESPN+
Radio: 107.9 KFIN
About The Author
