Conference Tournaments Continue March Madness Push

At Syndicate Sports, we projected the winners of all 31 conference tournaments using data from the past five seasons. After compiling the winners of each conference’s past five tournaments, we used ChatGPT to project the most likely seed to win each event. Additional factors included whether a team seed fifth or lower reached the final and whether a team that played on the opening day advanced multiple rounds.

These projections identify the team most likely to win the conference tournament, not necessarily the team that will receive the automatic bid. Several conference, including the Atlantic Sun and Northeast Conference, have teams in transition from Division II competing in the tournament. How the automatic bid is awarded if a transitional team wins the tournament varies conference by conference.

This article is divided into three parts. This installment covers conference tournaments that begin between March 7 and March 10. To check out the first part, click here.

America East Conference

Dates: Mar. 7-14

Defending champion: Bryant

The No. 1 seed has won the past four tournaments, with former member Hartford winning as a No. 4 seed in 2021. After the Hawks defeated No. 6 seed UMass Lowell in that final, no team seeded lower than third made it to the championship game.

The projected winner is No. 1 seed Maryland-Baltimore County (UMBC). The Retrievers last won the conference tournament in 2018, then went on to become the first men’s No. 16 seed to defeat a No. 1 seed, beating Virginia.

Projected Winner: UMBC

Atlantic Coast Conference

Dates: Mar. 10-14

Defending champion: Duke

For the first time since Virginia in 2018, the No. 1 seed won the ACC conference tournament last season, with Duke defeating No. 2 Louisville. Only twice since the ACC expanded to 12 teams in 2005 has a double-digit seed advance to the conference finals. NC State did it both times, falling in North Carolina 2007 before defeating the Tar Heels in 2024.

The projected winner is No. 4 seed North Carolina, which would be the school’s first tournament championship since winning the 2016 title in Washington, D.C., en route to the NCAA Championship game. Since Dean Smith retired after the 1996-97 season, the Tar Heels have won only four ACC tournament titles.

Projected Winner: North Carolina

Big Sky Conference

Dates: Mar. 7-11

Defending champion: Montana

Over the past five conference tournaments, the No. 2 seed is the only seed to win multiple titles. Last season, Montana defeated Northern Colorado 91-83 to win its 12th tournament title.

The projected winner is No. 2 seed Montana State. The Bobcats won the conference tournament in three straight seasons between 2022-24 before Montana broke their streak. Their 2022 victory was the program’s first title since 1996, when it fell to Syracuse in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Projected Winner: Montana State

Big 12 Conference

Dates: Mar. 10-15

Defending champion: Houston

Since the Big 12 was formed from the former Southwest and Big Eight conferences, the tournament title has largely been dominated by the top three seeds. Only three times has a team seeded outside the top three won the title, with Iowa State last doing so in 2019 as a No. 5 seed.

The projected winner is No. 2 seed Houston. The Cougars, the defending tournament champions, have reached the championship game each season since joining the Big 12 in 2024. The top overall seed has not won back-to-back titles since Kansas did so in 2010 and 2011.

Projected Winner: Houston

Conference USA Conference

Dates: Mar. 10-14

Defending champion: Liberty

The top seed has won two of the past three conference tournaments. The exception was in 2024, when No. 3 Western Kentucky defeated No. 5 UTEP to win the title. Since Memphis’s domination of the conference ended in 2013, only Middle Tennessee has won back-to-back titles in 2016 and 2017.

Liberty, as the top overall seed, is the projected winner. The Flames won the conference in their second season, defeating No. 2 seed Jacksonville State. Including their time in the Big South and Atlantic Sun Conferences, the Flames are looking for their eight title.

Projected Winner: Liberty

Southland Conference

Dates: Mar. 8-11

Defending champion: McNeese

The No. 1 seed has won the past three conference tournaments, with McNeese claiming the past two under former coach Will Wade. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi was the last team not seeded No. 1 to win the tournament, defeating Southeast Louisiana in 2022.

The projected winner is No. 1 seed Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks improved their record by 13 wins, capturing the regular-season title a year after failing to qualify for the conference tournament.

Projected Winner: Stephen F. Austin

Southwestern Athletic Conference

Dates: Mar. 9-14

Defending champion: Alabama State

The SWAC tournament has been volatile, with teams seeded fifth or worse winning two of the last five titles. This includes No. 5 seed Alabama State’s win last season. The last time the top seed won back-to-back titles was in 2012 and 2013.

The projected winner is No. 2 seed Florida A&M, whose victory would give the program its first NCAA Tournament appearance since winning the MEAC in 2007. The Rattlers have yet to advance to the title game since moving to the SWAC with Bethune-Cookman in 2022.

Projected Winner: Florida A&M