Conference Tournaments Kick off March Madness Push

Conference tournaments are in full swing.

Cleveland State officially kicked off Championship Week with a 101-93 win over IU Indianapolis on March 2, earning a spot opposite top-seeded Wright State in the Horizon League quarterfinals. The victory marked the beginning of a two-week sprint in which all 31 conferences stage postseason tournaments to determine their automatic qualifiers for the NCAA Tournament.

Dancing on…See you at Wright State on Wednesday.#GoVikes pic.twitter.com/AOcfuIoyHG

— Cleveland State Men’s Basketball 🏀 (@csu_basketball) March 3, 2026

While some tournaments are played at iconic venues — including Madison Square Garden, which hosts the Big East Tournament, and the United Center, home of the Big Ten Tournament — other, such as the America East and Northeast Conference, hold their tournaments at campus sites hosted by the higher seed.

At Syndicate Sports, we projected the winners of all 31 conference tournaments using data from the past five seasons. After compiling the winners of each conference’s past five tournaments, we used ChatGPT to project the most likely seed to win each event. Additional factors included whether a team seed fifth or lower reached the final and whether a team that played on the opening day advanced multiple rounds.

These projections identify the team most likely to win the conference tournament, not necessarily the team that will receive the automatic bid. Several conference, including the Atlantic Sun and Northeast Conference, have teams in transition from Division II competing in the tournament. How the automatic bid is awarded if a transitional team wins the tournament varies conference by conference.

This article is divided into three parts. This installment covers conference tournaments that begin before Mar. 7.

Atlantic Sun Conference

Dates: Mar. 4-8

Defending champion: Lipscomb

In the past five conference tournaments, the No. 1 seed has won three times, including last season when Lipscomb defeated No. 2 seed North Alabama 76-65 in the final.

Based on that trend, the projected winner is No. 1 seed Central Arkansas. The Bears improved by 11 wins from last season to clinch a share of the Atlantic Sun regular-season title. Although tied with Austin Peay, Central Arkansas earned the top seed via a head-to-head tiebreaker.

Projected Winner: Central Arkansas

Big South Conference

Dates: Mar. 4-8

Defending champion: High Point

The No. 1 seed has won four of the past five tournaments, including High Point’s 81-69 victory over No. 3 seed Winthrop to secure its first NCAA Tournament berth.

The projected winner is No. 1 seed High Point. A title would make the Panthers the first repeat champion since Winthrop in 2020 and 2021. Since Winthrop’s four consecutive titles from 2002-05, only UNC Asheville (2011-12) and Coast Carolina (2014-15) have repeated.

Projected Winner: High Point

Coastal Athletic Conference

Dates: Mar. 6-10

Defending champion: UNC Wilmington

Over the past five conference tournaments, the No. 2 seed is the only seed to win multiple titles. Last season, UNC Wilmington edged No. 12 seed Delaware 76-72 for its first championship since 2017.

GRAB YOUR NITROGLYCERIN PILLS. WE HAVE A TIED GAME!@CofCBasketball x #CAAHoops pic.twitter.com/VIf7RDI1Ex

— CAA Basketball (@CAABasketball) March 2, 2026

The projected winner is No. 2 seed Charleston. The Cougars won the 2023 and 2024 tournaments and remain in contention for a share of the regular-season title. Four of the past five runner-ups were seeded fifth or lower.

Projected Winner: Charleston

Horizon League

Dates: Mar. 2-10

Defending champion: Robert Morris

The No. 1 seed has won three of the past five conference tournaments, including Robert Morris’ 89-78 victory over No. 4 seed Youngstown State last season.

The projection favors No. 1 seed Wright State. A title would be the Raiders’ first since 2022. The past two champions were first-time winners, including Oakland in 2024.

Projected Winner: Wright State

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

Dates: Mar. 5-10

Defending champion: Mount St. Mary’s

The MAAC has seen more volatility in recent years. The top seed has won only once in the past five tournaments — Iona in 2023 — and each of the past two champions were seeded fifth or lower.

The projected winner is No. 5 Marist. The Red Foxes are seeking their first conference tournament title since winning the ECAC Metro in 1987, a league that became the Northeast Conference in 1988. Marist would likely need to get past top-seed Merrimack.

Projected Winner: Marist

Missouri Valley Conference

Dates: Mar. 5-8

Defending champion: Drake

Only two programs have won the past five tournaments. Drake is a three-time defending champion and won last season as the top seed, defeating No. 2 seed Bradley.

The projection calls for No. 2 seed Bradley to end Drake’s run. The Braves last won the tournament in 2020. Since 2001, Bradley has won two conference titles and made one NCAA Tournament appearance, losing in the first round in 2019 after its Sweet 16 run in 2006.

Projected Winner: Bradley

Northeast Conference

Dates: Mar. 4-10

Defending champion: Saint Francis

The No. 1 seed has won two of the past five tournaments. In 2021, No. 4 seed Mount St. Mary’s won a four-team event affected by COVID-19 disruptions.

The projected winner is No. 1 seed Long Island. The Sharks have not won the conference tournament, though LIU Brooklyn claimed the NEC title in 2018 before merging with Division II LIU Post.

Projected Winner: Long Island

Ohio Valley Conference

Dates: Mar. 4-7

Defending champion: SIU Edwardsville

In each of the past three conference tournaments, the No. 1 seed failed to win the title. Little Rock (2024) and Southeast Missouri State (2025) both lost in the finals.

The projected winner is No. 2 seed Morehead State. Under the conference’s stepladder format, both the Eagles and No. 1 seed Tennessee State need one victory to reach the finals. Only one team seeded lower than fifth has reached the final in that span — No. 5 seed Southeast Missouri State, which won in 2023.

Projected Winner: Morehead State

Patriot League

Dates: Mar. 3-11

Defending champion: American

The No. 1 seed has won three of the past five conference tournaments, though top-seed Bucknell fell to No. 5 seed Navy in last year’s semifinals.

The projection favors No. 1 seed Navy. The Midshipmen last won the conference tournament in 1998 and advanced to the NCAA Tournament that season. Four of the past five tournaments have featured at least one finalist seeded fifth or lower.

Projected Winner: Navy

Southern Conference

Dates: Mar. 6-9

Defending champion: Wofford

Wofford’s title last season as a No. 6 seed ended a seven-year streak of top-seeded champions.

The projected winner is No. 1 seed East Tennessee State. The Buccaneers last won the tournament in 2020, just before the NCAA Tournament was cancelled because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Projected Winner: East Tennessee State

Summit League

Dates: Mar. 4-8

Defending champion: Omaha

The top seed has won each of the past four conference tournaments. The last time the top seed failed to reach the final was 2021, when South Dakota State lost to No. 4 seed Oral Roberts in the semifinals.

The projection is No. 1 seed North Dakota State. Since joining the Summit League in 2007, the Bison have won five tournament titles, most recently in 2020.

Projected Winner: North Dakota State

Sun Belt Conference

Dates: Mar. 3-9

Defending champion: Troy

The Sun Belt adopted a stepladder format last season to provide a greater advantage to the regular-season champion. Georgia State (2019) was the last top seed to win the tournament.

The projected winner is No. 3 seed Coastal Carolina, mirroring last season when Troy won as a No. 3 seed. The Chanticleers improved by nine wins this season and finished in a six-way tie for second place.

Projected Winner: Coastal Carolina

West Coast Conference

Dates: Mar. 5-10

Defending champion: Gonzaga

Since moving to a stepladder tournament in 2003, only two teams seeded lower than second have reached the title game. No. 3 seed San Diego won the tournament in 2008, and No. 3 seed BYU advanced to the final in 2018.

With two of the past three champions entering as the No. 2 seed, the projection is Saint Mary’s. This would prevent Gonzaga from leaving their final WCC Tournament with the title.

Projected Winner: Saint Mary’s