Conference Tournaments, Part 3: Power Conference Predictions

At Syndicate Sports, we projected the winners of all 31 conference tournaments using data from the past five seasons. After compiling the winners of each conference’s past five tournaments, we used ChatGPT to project the most likely seed to win each event. Additional factors included whether a team seed fifth or lower reached the final and whether a team that played on the opening day advanced multiple rounds.

These projections identify the team most likely to win the conference tournament, not necessarily the team that will receive the automatic bid. Several conference, including the Atlantic Sun and Northeast Conference, have teams in transition from Division II competing in the tournament. How the automatic bid is awarded if a transitional team wins the tournament varies conference by conference.

This article is divided into three parts. This is the final installment that covers conference tournaments that begin after March 11. To check out the second part, click here.

American Conference

Dates: Mar. 11-15

Defending champion: Memphis

The No. 1 seed has won the title in three of the past five seasons, including Memphis defeating No. 3 seed UAB for last year’s title. Since the conference formed after splitting from the Big East Conference in 2013, no school has won more than two titles. In fact, all the tournament champions from 2014 until 2022 are no longer in the conference.

The projected winner is No. 1 seed South Florida. The Bulls have advanced to the semifinals of the conference tournament only once (2024) since the American formed. Since joining Division I, the school has only one conference tournament championship, winning the Sun Belt in 1990.

Projected Winner: South Florida

Atlantic 10 Conference

Dates: Mar. 10-15

Defending champion: VCU

The No. 1 seed has won the title three of the past five seasons, including VCU defeating No. 2 seed George Mason for last year’s title. The other two championships were won by No. 6 seeds, most recently Duquesne in 2024.

The projected winner is No. 1 seed Saint Louis. The Billikens are seeking their first title since 2019 but have not advanced past the quarterfinals in the past two conference tournaments.

Projected Winner: Saint Louis

Big East Conference

Dates: Mar. 11-14

Defending champion: St. John’s

After the top seeds were eliminated early in 2021 and 2022, the No. 1 seeds have been on a dominate run. They have won the past three conference tournaments, the first time that has happened in Big East history dating to the conference’s first season in 1979-80.

The projected winner is No. 1 seed St. John’s, looking to extend the streak to four consecutive seasons. The Red Storm are seeking to become the first repeat champions since Villanova won three straight between 2017-19. The victory would also tie former member Syracuse with five tournament titles.

Projected Winner: St. John’s

Big Ten Conference

Dates: Mar. 10-15

Defending champion: Michigan

The No. 1 seed has not had much success in the past five tournaments, with Purdue in 2023 being the only one to advance to the championship game. The Boilermakers would defeated No. 10 seed Penn State to win the title. Since the tournament began in 1998, only 10 top seeds won the championship, with just two occurring after 2013.

The projected winner is No. 2 seed Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are coming off two rollercoaster seasons. They followed their first semifinal appearance in 2024 by becoming the odd team out of a five-way tie and failing to qualify for the conference tournament in 2025.

Projected Winner: Nebraska

Big West Conference

Dates: Mar. 11-14

Defending champion: UC San Diego

This conference has been dominated by the top two seeds over the past five seasons, with each claiming two titles. UC San Diego won its first Big West championship as the No. 1 seed last year, defeating No. 2 seed UC Irvine. The conference also rarely produces repeat champions. Utah State (2000-01) and UC Santa Barbara (2010-11) are the only back-to-back winners since UNLV won the first three conference tournaments.

The projected winner is No. 1 seed UC Irvine. With UC San Diego seeded fifth, there is a possibility the teams could meet in the semifinals. However, given the conference’s lack of repeat winners, the Anteaters appear to be the logical choice.

Projected Winner: UC Irvine

Ivy League

Dates: Mar. 14-15

Defending champion: Yale

The last conference to adopt a postseason tournament, the Ivy League includes only four of its eight members in the field. The conference also rotates the tournament host among its members, with No. 4 Cornell hosting in 2026. Of the seven tournament winners, five have been No. 2 seeds.

Thus, the projected winner is No. 2 seed Harvard. The Crimson have not reached the finals since falling to No. 2 seed Yale in 2019. This also marks their first tournament appearance since that season.

Projected Winner: Harvard

Mid-American Conference

Dates: Mar. 12-14

Defending champion: Akron

Akron’s title last season was the first by a No. 1 seed since Buffalo in 2019. In the interim, the No. 2 seed won back-to-back titles in 2023 and 2024. Since the 2020-21 season, only the top eight teams have advanced to the tournament, a format the conference used prior to the 1999-2000 season.

The projected winner is No. 2 seed Akron. While Miami University has drawn attention with its undefeated season, the RedHawks have made only one finals appearance since their last title in 2007. The Zips, however, have six titles during that span and three of the past four.

Projected Winner: Akron

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Dates: Mar. 11-14

Defending champion: Norfolk State

Since losing Florida A&M and Bethune-Cookman to the SWAC and North Carolina A&T to the CAA following the 2020-21 season, the top seed has dominated the tournament. With the exception of No. 4 seed Howard in 2024, the top seed has won every title since 2022.

The projected winner is No. 1 seed Howard. The Bison and Norfolk State have become the class of the slimmed-down MEAC since 2022. Expect the top-seed dominance to continue, as Howard is the only team in the conference with an overall record above .500.

Projected Winner: Howard

Mountain West Conference

Dates: Mar. 11-14

Defending champion: Colorado State

This will be the final conference tournament for five members, including founding members Colorado State and San Diego State, as football realignment will reshape the conference. The past two tournaments have seen the top seeds eliminated in the semifinals.

The projected winner is No. 1 Utah State. The Aggies, one of the five schools playing in their final Mountain West tournament, are seeking their first conference tournament title since winning in 2019 and 2020. The conference is also aiming to extend its streak of multiple NCAA Tournament bids to eight consecutive seasons.

Projected Winner: Utah State

Southeastern Conference

Dates: Mar. 11-14

Defending champion: Florida

This conference has been dominated by the top two seeds over the past five seasons, with each notching two titles. No. 4 seed Auburn in 2024 was the exception. The top two seeds have tended to alternate championships, though Florida is the last team not named Kentucky to win back-to-back SEC Tournament titles. The Gators won three straight from 2005-07.

The projected winner is No. 1 seed Florida. The defending national champions continued their dominance of the SEC by winning the regular-season title by three games over Arkansas and Alabama. A tournament victory would break the tie with Tennessee for six championships.

Projected Winner: Florida

Western Athletic Conference

Dates: Mar. 11-14

Defending champion: Grand Canyon

The WAC is preparing to stage its final conference tournament this season. On July 1, the conference will rebrand as the United Athletic Conference, the football alliance between the WAC and Atlantic Sun conferences that will become an all-sport league. With that change, the non-football members will move to new conferences.

One certainty is that their will be a first-time conference tournament winner, as none of the current members has previously won the WAC title. Since the No. 1 seed has won three of the last five tournaments, the projected winner is No. 1 seed Utah Valley. The Wolverines had to obtain a court injunction to participate in the tournament, due to legal issues over the school’s exit fee that remain pending with the conference.

Projected Winner: Utah Valley